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[推荐]美国石油出口将促使汽油价格下跌

据道琼斯10月20日消息,美国政府周一发布的一份报告称,美国石油出口将促使成品油零售价格下降。

美国政府问责局的研究报告将令围绕是否应该解除实施近四十年的美国石油出口禁令的争论更趋白热化。因为石油生产商们正在游说政府取消该禁令,在当前来自于北达科他州、得克萨斯州和其他地区页岩构造区页岩石油产量快速增长的情况下,可以将石油出口至更高价格的国外市场。

据美国能源信息署的数据显示,今年7月份美国石油产量超过了850万桶/天,同比增长14%。同时今年美国从国外进口原油占据其需求的比例已经下降至30%,比2005年时60%的比例下降了一半。

包括美国主要炼油商在内的反对取消禁令的团体争论美国原油应该留在国内用于消费,但是出口支持者们表示美国汽油价格与全球市场关联密切,出口原油最终将降低国内汽油价格。

美国政府问责局通过研究发现允许出口将增加美国原油成本,但将导致美国汽油和柴油等炼油产品价格的下降。那是因为取消出口限制将刺激石油企业生产更多的原油,从而降低全球石油价格。美国政府问责局估计,如果允许出口,未来20年美国原油产量将增加高达330万桶/天。

美国政府问责局表示:“允许原油出口将增加全球原油供应,预计将促使国际油价下跌,随后,消费燃料价格也将下跌。”

唐绍红摘译自道琼斯

原文如下:

U.S. Oil Exports Would Lower Gas Prices, Government Report Says

By Christian Berthelsen

U.S. oil exports would lead to cheaper prices at the pump, according to a government report released Monday.

The study, by the U.S. Government Accountability Office, will add fuel to the growing debate over whether to lift the nearly four-decade ban on U.S. oil exports. It comes as oil producers lobby to reverse the ban and get their oil to higher-priced foreign markets amid fast-rising volumes from fracking in shale formations in North Dakota, Texas and elsewhere.

The U.S. produced more than 8.5 million barrels of oil a day in July, up 14% from a year ago, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Meanwhile, the amount of foreign crude being imported to meet domestic needs has been cut in half to 30% of demand this year from 60% in 2005.

Opponents of lifting the ban, which include major U.S. refiners that obtain domestic crude at lower cost, argue that U.S. crude should remain in the country for consumption. But export advocates note that most of the country's gasoline prices are derived from global markets and sending out U.S. crude would ultimately lower prices at home.

The GAO found that allowing exports would raise the cost of crude in the U.S. but would lead to lower prices for refined products like gasoline and diesel. That is because removing export restrictions would create an incentive for oil companies to produce more crude, lowering global oil prices. The GAO estimates production would increase by as much as 3.3 million barrels a day over the next 20 years if exports were allowed.

"Allowing crude oil exports would increase world supplies of crude oil, which is expected to reduce international prices and, subsequently, lower consumer fuel prices," the GAO said

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